The second guessing has been going on in earnest since last week’s election. There are a couple of trends that are getting overwhelmed by the minutiae and the feeling of “How Could This Happen”. Cursed with a graduate level understanding of statistics a couple of things stand out to me. First, Trump increased his popular vote total by less than 2% over his total in 2020. Much of that came from shifts in certain demographics and much better performance in the battleground states. Yes, it is the highest popular vote total for any Republican Candidate but to be honest that is not a very high bar. Harris on the other hand tallied 9 million fewer votes that Biden in 2020. An 11% drop.
She underperformed him in almost every county, and every battle ground state. This is a difficult thing to say. A politician can be a great human being, widely experienced, have a track record of accomplishments, and perform well in debates and still be a lousy candidate. Harris was not a great candidate. Here is why.
I hate to say it, but to elect a Black Woman to be president was a heavy lift. Particularly since Trump had a four-year head start. Harris did not have the time to create a strong personal bond with voters. I believe her candidacy relied on the assurance of Identity politics and that issue-oriented voters on abortion would lift her to a majority. That clearly did not happen. The Abortion Referendum in Florida won 56% of the vote, Florida went for Trump by that same number. Latinos shifted significantly towards Trump and there was significantly low turnout from the Black Vote. Both hurt Harris in the battle ground states. Harris lacked the familiarity that Biden had as a known political quantity. She could not leverage the support that got him 81 million votes.
So, it wasn’t a new wave of Trump voters that overwhelmed the incumbent majority. The voters that elected Biden in 2020 stayed home. The Blue wave receded. The Red Tide stayed about the same. This is why I believe that happened. “Make America Great Again” is a brilliant tag line and Trump stayed on message relentlessly for four years. It is so much easier to romanticize the past than embrace an uncertain future. Harris never offered an alternative. It might have sounded like this. “America’s greatness lies in its future. Not it’s past.” And then show people the accomplishments of the last four years remind them of the debacle of Trumps handling of the pandemic which cost half a million American Lives and resulted in 22 million lost jobs wiping out a decade of job growth. Show that in contrast the American Economy is in ascendance.
Low unemployment, increased GDP, Increased wage growth. These are meta statistics and voters do not vote on 3% GDP or 4% unemployment. They vote on the price of eggs, the cost of a home, how much they spend on gas. Harris needed to make the case that this administration was on the right path economically and show how this would result in a better future. Then relentlessly pound on it. A tough sell, but she didn’t even try. Would this have brought some of those 11 million voters out of their homes and into the voting booth?
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